Author: Drew Masada
One of the underlying assumptions of any robust nuclear arms control regime is the need to halt attempts at nuclear proliferation. Regimes develop and refine their nuclear programs through testing their weapons. Unlike chemical and biological weapons programs that are mobile, easily concealed, and not easily traced - due to the size of the laboratory, ready availability of base materials and ease of replication - nuclear facilities are large and nuclear tests emit energy that can be traced through air, land, and sea. Some nations have the independent capacity for monitoring, but the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) is the only international organization that monitors for these tests. The CTBTO, whose mission is to prevent the testing of nuclear weapons everywhere on earth, has developed a verification regime consisting of 337 monitoring stations positioned worldwide. The system uses four different types of technologies: seismic, hydroaccoustic, infrasound and radionuclide. Data gathered at these stations is sent to the Information Monitoring System (IMS) center at the CTBTO headquarters in Vienna, where it is analyzed and disseminated. Putting aside for a moment the political aspects of how the verification system might work, understanding more about the technical aspects of the system can help the reader to make a more informed judgment as to the utility of a non-proliferation regime. When operating as intended, the system alerts the CTBTO to the possibility that a nuclear test has occurred.
Nuclear tests emit waves of energy that can be picked up by seismometers as they pass through the earth’s surface. Seismic waves can be caused by any number of events, such as plate shifts, mine explosions, and nuclear explosions. The CTBTO has fifty primary and 120 auxiliary seismic monitoring stations in seventy-six countries, placed in array formations that help eliminate background noise. In seconds to minutes after a nuclear event, seismic monitoring stations can pick up the waves, allowing analysts to determine the approximate location and strength of the event.
Hydroaccoustic stations, like the name suggests, use microphones to monitor sound waves that cause changes in water pressure. These changes in pressure can be caused by a number of events, such as underwater earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, military exercises, and nuclear tests. The CTBTO have eleven hydroaccoustic stations, six in the water and five near shores, covering the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans.
Infrasound technology can also help pinpoint the location of the event. Designed to detect atmospheric nuclear explosions, sixty stations in thirty-five countries detect changes in atmospheric pressure caused by storms, meteors, rocket launches, earthquakes, volcanoes, and nuclear tests.
Radionuclide monitoring is the fourth and final technology used to detect nuclear tests. A radionuclide is an “isotope with an unstable nucleus that releases its excess energy in the form of radiation, or radioactive decay.” While other methods are able to locate and approximate the size of the event, only the presence of radionuclides can serve as a confirmation that the event was nuclear in nature. If the test occurs in a shallow underground area, underwater, or in the atmosphere, radioactive fallout from the explosion binds to particles in the air. Depending on weather patterns, these radioisotopes are picked up by monitoring stations days to weeks later. If tests are conducted in facilities deep underground or in natural structures that may contain such blasts, such as salt caves, radionuclides will not make it up to the atmosphere. However, noble gases have a higher chance of escaping into the atmosphere where they are picked up by noble gas monitoring systems.
The CTBTO has eighty stations in twenty-seven countries, forty of which are outfitted with a noble gas detector. These instruments take periodic samples of the atmosphere that pass through the station. Unfortunately there are times during which even the noble gases are not detected. While the CTBTO was able to quickly pinpoint the location and size of the 2009 nuclear test by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), after three weeks, they could not detect any radionuclide emissions. Some believe that the deep underground explosion collapsed the rock, around the event, effectively containing any radionuclide/noble gas emissions. Others postulate that the nuclear weapon tested was of insufficient size to be detectable by the network. Finally, it is possible that it was not a nuclear weapons test at all, but merely a carefully designed explosion, intended to mimic the effects of nuclear weapon for the purpose of convincing international audiences of the DPRK’s progress towards a more advanced weapon.
And as with the other methods of detection, one must learn to filter out the background noises. Radioactive isotopes can come from a variety of sources, such as civilian nuclear generators, cyclotrons, and large radionuclide production facilities like Chalk River in Canada. Fortunately, an effort is underway to pinpoint and catalogue the locations and emissions of the facilities to better establish a normal “background level” of radioisotopes.
The work of the CTBTO verification regime has created a multinational institutionalized center for collection and dissemination of information with growing levels of coverage and experience in detection. Hopefully, this buildup of capacity can foster faith in the process so that it can be relied and called upon to detect and verify the efforts of would-be proliferators and deter attempts at defection from the regime. For the future, there is still much progress that must be made on the technical, as well as the political, side before the CTBTO verification regime becomes a reliable tool of the non-proliferation regime.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Somalia: The Contagious Crisis Spreads
Author: Amanda Towler
In a statement dated January 29, 2010, al-Shabaab reiterated its loyalty to al-Qaeda and announced that it had joined forces with the Kismayu-based Kamboni militant group. The statement appears to be signed by al-Shabaab’s shadowy leader, Ahmed Abdi Godane.
The announcement comes at a time when the weak Somali transitional federal government (TFG) is trying to gain the advantage in the stalemate with al-Shabaab and other Islamic insurgent groups. Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has been hard-pressed to find much support among Somalia’s neighbors or the international community, but recent developments have prompted renewed attention to the crisis. The battle for Somalia is far from over.
Al-Shabaab Catches Global Jihad Fever
Al-Shabaab’s pledge of loyalty to al-Qaeda is likely more a symbolic move than a strategic one. Al-Shabaab pledged its allegiance to al-Qaeda in September of 2009, and has since then denied and reaffirmed this allegiance several times, in sync with the changing tide of public opinion. The group has seen internal divisions over whether to join al-Qaeda’s global jihad or focus primarily on Somalia, but its recent pledge to support al-Qaeda forces in Yemen suggests that it may be pursuing a more global jihad, in line with al-Qaeda ideology.
This move could have also been purely propaganda, but other developments suggest that al-Shabaab is indeed globalizing. A Somali man was arrested while trying to a board a plane in Mogadishu, bound for Dubai, with paraphernalia similar to those used by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab in his failed Christmas Day attack on a US plane. The Somali man who tried to murder Dutch cartoonist Kurt Westergaard on January 1 also reportedly had links to al-Shabaab. Considering that the group has already shown interest in a global agenda, its recent pledge to al-Qaeda is not a revelation, although it is nonetheless worrisome for Somalia and President Ahmed.
The decision to join forces with the Kamboni is also likely more of a gesture than a strategic shift. The statement signed by al-Shabaab and Kamboni leaders calls on the “mujahideen” to “liberate the Eastern and Horn of Africa community” from “the colonizers” and “the Christians who invaded our country.” The merger, however, will only add a few hundred fighters to al-Shabaab’s estimated 5,000 forces, and the Kamboni will contribute little, if any, territorial control. Al-Shabaab, moreover, already appeared to have the upper hand against the TFG, even before the announced merger, suggesting that the move was more for publicity than necessity.
Since the beginning of this year, Al-Shabbab has been engaging AU forces in Mogadishu. These attacks demonstrate that the insurgents are on the offensive, a fact reiterated by the spread of violence beyond al-Shabaab’s strongholds in southern Somalia.
Somalia’s Illness Infects Its Neighbors
Somalia’s neighbors are finding it increasingly difficult to ignore the country’s crisis. Al-Shabaab sympathizers in Kenya have put that country on high alert ever since Somalis there held violent protests against the government’s decision to deport a radical Muslim cleric back to Jamaica. The protestors were waving al-Shabaab’s black flag, which raised suspicions among Kenyan citizens and prompted police to conduct raids and arrest hundreds of Somalis suspected of inciting riots.
An audio posting on the Internet, allegedly recorded by al-Shabaab, declared that the group would retaliate against Kenya for the arrests. Spokesman Raage denied that his group was responsible for the recording and rejected accusations that his group had threatened Kenya. The group also denied the December 3 bombing of a graduation ceremony that killed 22 people, but most Somalis assume the group’s culpability.
Al-Shabaab has threatened to strike at Kenya before, but it is unclear whether they have the capacity to do so. The group is bogged down inside Somalia, and there have been signs of an internal split that would hinder a coordinated attack on Kenya. The presence of al-Shabaab flags during the recent protests, however, suggests that there are at least some sympathizers among the Somali population in Kenya. In recognition of the potential for Somalia’s crisis to undermine stability in Kenya, President Mwai Kibaki recently urged Italy and other members of the International Crisis Group (ICG) to provide support to Somalia’s feeble TFG. Kenya has ramped up its border security ahead of the TFG’s planned offensive against al-Shabaab, to prevent the group’s fighters from seeking refuge there.
Somalia’s other neighbors are at attention now, as well. Djibouti offered to contribute 450 troops at a meeting of African Union foreign ministers on January 28. Djibouti’s foreign minister said he hopes his country’s move will inspire others to do the same. International donors a year ago pledged some $213million but little of that has yet materialized, partly because of fears that it would end up in the hands of insurgents. Al-Shabaab warned Djibouti against its decision to send troops and threatened “bad consequences” if it followed through.
While Djbouti’s troops may bolster the AU forces, the move could also worsen popular support for the TFG, as ordinary Somalis dislike foreign troops on their land and are already tolerating the presence of some 5,000 Ugandan and Burundian AU troops. The presence of foreign troops in Somalia tends to bolster public support for groups like al-Shabaab, who take credit for forcing the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops in early 2009. As recently as February 7, however, al-Shabaab forces reported seeing Ethiopian troops cross over into Somalia, in pursuit of one of the group’s members. The Ethiopian government denies entering Somalia, although it does provide the TFG with security advice and training for new military recruits.
No Immunity for Somaliland and Puntland
Another worrying sign in Somalia’s crisis is the recent string of violent attacks in the semi-autonomous regions of Somaliland and Puntland. In Somaliland, a bomb killed four policemen on Monday, January 25. The bomb was hidden near a mosque and detonated when police arrived to investigate. Several days before, a group of attackers threw grenades at the main police station in Las Anod near the border with Puntland. Earlier this month Somaliland security forces claimed that they intercepted a plot to bomb a mosque in Hargeisa where the imam preached against al-Shabaab’s suicide bombing tactics.
Violence is spilling over into Puntland as well. A gunman shot and killed a local politician, Mohamed Abdi Daqare, in the port town of Bossaso on January 20, 2010. Another politician was killed earlier in January, and in November 2009 a judge who had sentenced pirates and Islamic militants to prison was gunned down as well. No groups have yet claimed responsibility for these attacks, but we expect the perpetrators are affiliated with al-Shabaab, particularly because al-Shabaab has previously targeted both Somaliland and Puntland with synchronized blasts in 2008 that killed at least 24 people. The recent string of attacks suggest a worrying development that al-Shabaab may be slowly increasing its influence and control further north into Somalia, which would be a bad sign for the already-stretched TFG and AU forces.
Fighting for Survival
In addition to the security situation, President Ahmed’s government faces a dire fiscal deficit. Foreign minister Ali Ahmed Jama Jengeli recently announced that Somalia may close its embassies in Paris and Berlin, as well as the country’s mission at the UN in Geneva, unless it can find “friendly” countries to help finance them. Somalia’s embassies in London and Washington DC have already been closed for several years.
It is still unclear when the TFG will be ready to carry out the crushing offensive it has pledged to deliver against al-Shabaab-- an attempt to turn the tide in a losing war against the Islamic insurgents. The TFG has decided to integrate security forces from the ousted regime of President Abdullahi Yusuf and from the Islamic Courts Union into its own feeble military. Somali Interior Minister Sheikh Abdulkadir Ali Omar attempted to allay fears that al-Shabaab might try to infiltrate the government’s armed forces through this new merger, saying the government is well aware of who the Islamic Courts members are. It is a risky operation, but the TFG is fast running out of options.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Targeting Schools
Author: Lauren Wells
In a follow-up to a 2007 analysis, the United Nations Education, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) released its report on school violence, Education under Attack, 2010. It describes an ever deteriorating situation for many students, teachers, and administrators in thirty-one countries. The report examines patterns of violence, motives, and monitoring. And while attacks on schools have increased dramatically, involving the community in the educational process may help stem those attacks.
Americans often associate school violence with Columbine or Virginia Tech where one or two individuals are motivated to turn a gun on their fellow students. The cause of such violence, while hotly debated, often centers on bullying or psychological disorders. And yet around the world there is a much more common type of violence, far removed from our relatively safe academic institutions. UNESCO’s report focuses on targeted acts of violence “carried out for political, military, ideological, sectarian, ethnic, religious or criminal reasons, against students, teachers, academics and all other education personnel”. Schools are closed, set on fire, or bombed. Students and administrators are the victims of assassination, torture, acid attacks, and kidnappings; even forcing children into military or militia service.
Tactics vary across region and country. In Pakistan the Taliban has targeted educational facilities; often firebombing schools. However, the number of deaths remains relatively low. In contrast, schools in Afghanistan have been repeatedly attacked resulting in numerous casualties with one in five educational personnel reportedly receiving threats. Suicide attacks are also much more common in Afghanistan, whereas in Africa, sexual abuse of schoolgirls is a more common weapon against the right to an education.
The stories are frightening. The effect of each attack ripples across the nation’s society. One attack can shut down a school for months. Where schools remain open, intimidation can keep attendance low. Recruitment of teachers and administrators becomes increasingly hard. Limited or no access to an education threatens to stall the community’s advancement. Considering the importance of an education, the 2010 report makes several recommendations:
The last recommendation is particularly interesting. The UNESCO report, in several instances, supports the idea that local level negotiations can and have already helped decrease instances of violence on education. The reason may be two fold. The first is that community engagement can often directly address the reason or motives for attacks against education. Secondly, community involvement creates a sense of responsibility for that education.
The idea that negotiations can be made at the micro level is not a new proposal. Many have argued for “bottom up” activism in concert with more well known “top down” peace agreements. John Prendergast wrote that local communities are much more apt at responding to local issues due to their “resources, perspectives, knowledge, and commitment that are unavailable to outsiders.” Therefore, peace will be more likely to last given the added support from below.
A study by CARE, an international humanitarian organization, sites polling data that suggests in areas where there is strong community involvement, schools are less likely to be attacked. They suggest measures such as hiring private armed guards (this helps de-link the school from either the national government or from an outside military) or increasing information regarding the curriculum (many attacks appear to stem from the belief that children are being taught an anti-Islamic message).
In places like Afghanistan, this approach appears to be showing some signs of success. The study cites Afghanistan’s new Minister of Education, Farooq Wardak, effort to increase community engagement. As of March 2009, “161 schools re-opened compared to 35 in 2007-2008; and in the crucial first month of term, when schools are particularly vulnerable to attack, no violent incidents were reported.”
UNESCO’s report is a starting point in bringing awareness to an increasingly important situation facing many. As the United States increases its engagement in Afghanistan, top-down political and military strategies will only be part of winning the war. However, it will be important for local communities to step up and take responsibility, where they can, to protect their schools.
Read the full report:
http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0018/001868/186809e.pdf
In a follow-up to a 2007 analysis, the United Nations Education, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) released its report on school violence, Education under Attack, 2010. It describes an ever deteriorating situation for many students, teachers, and administrators in thirty-one countries. The report examines patterns of violence, motives, and monitoring. And while attacks on schools have increased dramatically, involving the community in the educational process may help stem those attacks.
Americans often associate school violence with Columbine or Virginia Tech where one or two individuals are motivated to turn a gun on their fellow students. The cause of such violence, while hotly debated, often centers on bullying or psychological disorders. And yet around the world there is a much more common type of violence, far removed from our relatively safe academic institutions. UNESCO’s report focuses on targeted acts of violence “carried out for political, military, ideological, sectarian, ethnic, religious or criminal reasons, against students, teachers, academics and all other education personnel”. Schools are closed, set on fire, or bombed. Students and administrators are the victims of assassination, torture, acid attacks, and kidnappings; even forcing children into military or militia service.
Tactics vary across region and country. In Pakistan the Taliban has targeted educational facilities; often firebombing schools. However, the number of deaths remains relatively low. In contrast, schools in Afghanistan have been repeatedly attacked resulting in numerous casualties with one in five educational personnel reportedly receiving threats. Suicide attacks are also much more common in Afghanistan, whereas in Africa, sexual abuse of schoolgirls is a more common weapon against the right to an education.
The stories are frightening. The effect of each attack ripples across the nation’s society. One attack can shut down a school for months. Where schools remain open, intimidation can keep attendance low. Recruitment of teachers and administrators becomes increasingly hard. Limited or no access to an education threatens to stall the community’s advancement. Considering the importance of an education, the 2010 report makes several recommendations:
- Increase reporting of incidents, as well as increase analysis (particularly where motives are concerned).
- Increase international support in rebuilding schools, safe transport provisions, military awareness, and in strengthening international laws.
- Increase pressure to change norms. For instance, schools should be designated zones of peace.
- Capacity building for local negotiations allowing for input and private security.
The last recommendation is particularly interesting. The UNESCO report, in several instances, supports the idea that local level negotiations can and have already helped decrease instances of violence on education. The reason may be two fold. The first is that community engagement can often directly address the reason or motives for attacks against education. Secondly, community involvement creates a sense of responsibility for that education.
The idea that negotiations can be made at the micro level is not a new proposal. Many have argued for “bottom up” activism in concert with more well known “top down” peace agreements. John Prendergast wrote that local communities are much more apt at responding to local issues due to their “resources, perspectives, knowledge, and commitment that are unavailable to outsiders.” Therefore, peace will be more likely to last given the added support from below.
A study by CARE, an international humanitarian organization, sites polling data that suggests in areas where there is strong community involvement, schools are less likely to be attacked. They suggest measures such as hiring private armed guards (this helps de-link the school from either the national government or from an outside military) or increasing information regarding the curriculum (many attacks appear to stem from the belief that children are being taught an anti-Islamic message).
In places like Afghanistan, this approach appears to be showing some signs of success. The study cites Afghanistan’s new Minister of Education, Farooq Wardak, effort to increase community engagement. As of March 2009, “161 schools re-opened compared to 35 in 2007-2008; and in the crucial first month of term, when schools are particularly vulnerable to attack, no violent incidents were reported.”
UNESCO’s report is a starting point in bringing awareness to an increasingly important situation facing many. As the United States increases its engagement in Afghanistan, top-down political and military strategies will only be part of winning the war. However, it will be important for local communities to step up and take responsibility, where they can, to protect their schools.
Read the full report:
http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0018/001868/186809e.pdf
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