Author: Amanda Towler
In a statement dated January 29, 2010, al-Shabaab reiterated its loyalty to al-Qaeda and announced that it had joined forces with the Kismayu-based Kamboni militant group. The statement appears to be signed by al-Shabaab’s shadowy leader, Ahmed Abdi Godane.
The announcement comes at a time when the weak Somali transitional federal government (TFG) is trying to gain the advantage in the stalemate with al-Shabaab and other Islamic insurgent groups. Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has been hard-pressed to find much support among Somalia’s neighbors or the international community, but recent developments have prompted renewed attention to the crisis. The battle for Somalia is far from over.
Al-Shabaab Catches Global Jihad Fever
Al-Shabaab’s pledge of loyalty to al-Qaeda is likely more a symbolic move than a strategic one. Al-Shabaab pledged its allegiance to al-Qaeda in September of 2009, and has since then denied and reaffirmed this allegiance several times, in sync with the changing tide of public opinion. The group has seen internal divisions over whether to join al-Qaeda’s global jihad or focus primarily on Somalia, but its recent pledge to support al-Qaeda forces in Yemen suggests that it may be pursuing a more global jihad, in line with al-Qaeda ideology.
This move could have also been purely propaganda, but other developments suggest that al-Shabaab is indeed globalizing. A Somali man was arrested while trying to a board a plane in Mogadishu, bound for Dubai, with paraphernalia similar to those used by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab in his failed Christmas Day attack on a US plane. The Somali man who tried to murder Dutch cartoonist Kurt Westergaard on January 1 also reportedly had links to al-Shabaab. Considering that the group has already shown interest in a global agenda, its recent pledge to al-Qaeda is not a revelation, although it is nonetheless worrisome for Somalia and President Ahmed.
The decision to join forces with the Kamboni is also likely more of a gesture than a strategic shift. The statement signed by al-Shabaab and Kamboni leaders calls on the “mujahideen” to “liberate the Eastern and Horn of Africa community” from “the colonizers” and “the Christians who invaded our country.” The merger, however, will only add a few hundred fighters to al-Shabaab’s estimated 5,000 forces, and the Kamboni will contribute little, if any, territorial control. Al-Shabaab, moreover, already appeared to have the upper hand against the TFG, even before the announced merger, suggesting that the move was more for publicity than necessity.
Since the beginning of this year, Al-Shabbab has been engaging AU forces in Mogadishu. These attacks demonstrate that the insurgents are on the offensive, a fact reiterated by the spread of violence beyond al-Shabaab’s strongholds in southern Somalia.
Somalia’s Illness Infects Its Neighbors
Somalia’s neighbors are finding it increasingly difficult to ignore the country’s crisis. Al-Shabaab sympathizers in Kenya have put that country on high alert ever since Somalis there held violent protests against the government’s decision to deport a radical Muslim cleric back to Jamaica. The protestors were waving al-Shabaab’s black flag, which raised suspicions among Kenyan citizens and prompted police to conduct raids and arrest hundreds of Somalis suspected of inciting riots.
An audio posting on the Internet, allegedly recorded by al-Shabaab, declared that the group would retaliate against Kenya for the arrests. Spokesman Raage denied that his group was responsible for the recording and rejected accusations that his group had threatened Kenya. The group also denied the December 3 bombing of a graduation ceremony that killed 22 people, but most Somalis assume the group’s culpability.
Al-Shabaab has threatened to strike at Kenya before, but it is unclear whether they have the capacity to do so. The group is bogged down inside Somalia, and there have been signs of an internal split that would hinder a coordinated attack on Kenya. The presence of al-Shabaab flags during the recent protests, however, suggests that there are at least some sympathizers among the Somali population in Kenya. In recognition of the potential for Somalia’s crisis to undermine stability in Kenya, President Mwai Kibaki recently urged Italy and other members of the International Crisis Group (ICG) to provide support to Somalia’s feeble TFG. Kenya has ramped up its border security ahead of the TFG’s planned offensive against al-Shabaab, to prevent the group’s fighters from seeking refuge there.
Somalia’s other neighbors are at attention now, as well. Djibouti offered to contribute 450 troops at a meeting of African Union foreign ministers on January 28. Djibouti’s foreign minister said he hopes his country’s move will inspire others to do the same. International donors a year ago pledged some $213million but little of that has yet materialized, partly because of fears that it would end up in the hands of insurgents. Al-Shabaab warned Djibouti against its decision to send troops and threatened “bad consequences” if it followed through.
While Djbouti’s troops may bolster the AU forces, the move could also worsen popular support for the TFG, as ordinary Somalis dislike foreign troops on their land and are already tolerating the presence of some 5,000 Ugandan and Burundian AU troops. The presence of foreign troops in Somalia tends to bolster public support for groups like al-Shabaab, who take credit for forcing the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops in early 2009. As recently as February 7, however, al-Shabaab forces reported seeing Ethiopian troops cross over into Somalia, in pursuit of one of the group’s members. The Ethiopian government denies entering Somalia, although it does provide the TFG with security advice and training for new military recruits.
No Immunity for Somaliland and Puntland
Another worrying sign in Somalia’s crisis is the recent string of violent attacks in the semi-autonomous regions of Somaliland and Puntland. In Somaliland, a bomb killed four policemen on Monday, January 25. The bomb was hidden near a mosque and detonated when police arrived to investigate. Several days before, a group of attackers threw grenades at the main police station in Las Anod near the border with Puntland. Earlier this month Somaliland security forces claimed that they intercepted a plot to bomb a mosque in Hargeisa where the imam preached against al-Shabaab’s suicide bombing tactics.
Violence is spilling over into Puntland as well. A gunman shot and killed a local politician, Mohamed Abdi Daqare, in the port town of Bossaso on January 20, 2010. Another politician was killed earlier in January, and in November 2009 a judge who had sentenced pirates and Islamic militants to prison was gunned down as well. No groups have yet claimed responsibility for these attacks, but we expect the perpetrators are affiliated with al-Shabaab, particularly because al-Shabaab has previously targeted both Somaliland and Puntland with synchronized blasts in 2008 that killed at least 24 people. The recent string of attacks suggest a worrying development that al-Shabaab may be slowly increasing its influence and control further north into Somalia, which would be a bad sign for the already-stretched TFG and AU forces.
Fighting for Survival
In addition to the security situation, President Ahmed’s government faces a dire fiscal deficit. Foreign minister Ali Ahmed Jama Jengeli recently announced that Somalia may close its embassies in Paris and Berlin, as well as the country’s mission at the UN in Geneva, unless it can find “friendly” countries to help finance them. Somalia’s embassies in London and Washington DC have already been closed for several years.
It is still unclear when the TFG will be ready to carry out the crushing offensive it has pledged to deliver against al-Shabaab-- an attempt to turn the tide in a losing war against the Islamic insurgents. The TFG has decided to integrate security forces from the ousted regime of President Abdullahi Yusuf and from the Islamic Courts Union into its own feeble military. Somali Interior Minister Sheikh Abdulkadir Ali Omar attempted to allay fears that al-Shabaab might try to infiltrate the government’s armed forces through this new merger, saying the government is well aware of who the Islamic Courts members are. It is a risky operation, but the TFG is fast running out of options.
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