Moon Shot: The United Nations’ Next Attempt to Unify Cyprus

Author: Drew Masada

On Monday, the Secretary – General of the United Nations (UN) Ban Ki-Moon began talks with the representatives of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities with the intention of brokering an agreement that would end the de-facto partition of the island that has existed since 1974. Cyprus has been plagued by decades of ethnic strife and failed peace deals. In 2004, UN Secretary – General Kofi Annan and the European Union (EU) led a joint effort to bring both sides to a power-sharing agreement. They believed that a combination of reasoned discourse and a desire to be part of the European Community would be sufficient. They failed on two accounts. They failed to link membership in the EU with the passage of the Annan Plan. In addition, they also failed to see that the Turkish Cypriot representative Rauf Denktash was a spoiler to the negotiations. When put to a joint referendum, the Annan Plan failed. While the Turkish Cypriot people voted in favor of the Plan, the Greek Cypriot people voted against it. The Greek Cypriots, entered into the European Union as the official representatives of the island, and both the Turkish Cypriots and the Turks were shut out of the opportunity to join the EU.

How has the situation changed since 2004? The first and most obvious difference is the new Secretary – General Ban Ki-Moon. Each new leader brings a fresh new perspective and enthusiasm for tackling this tough problem. A second difference is of even greater significance to the negotiations. In 2004, old guard politicians represented the two sides. Currently, the Turkish and Greek Cypriot people have elected new Presidents. Both are more moderate, pro- peace leaders. The Greek Cypriots elected Demetris Christofias, a bona fide Communist who pledged that resolving the conflict was a top priority of his administration. Mehmet Ali Talat, who is also a leftist, represents the Turkish Cypriots. In 2004, Talat openly called for Turkish Cypriots to support the Annan Plan. Christofias and Ali Talat began biweekly meetings in 2008. UN and other negotiators have hinted at progress, but many issues still remain.

While change in leadership is a hopeful sign, many of the problems of 2004, are unchanged. Since entering the EU, Greek Cypriots have little incentive to make concessions to the Turkish Cypriots in order to share power with them. The Turkish Cypriots are still economically disadvantaged and have not seen the reward from voting in favor of the Annan Plan. The EU, US and Turkey still wish to bring Turkey into the EU, drawing them closer to the European sphere.

The final piece of the challenge-facing Secretary – General Moon is the upcoming April 18 deadline when the Turkish Cypriot people elect their president. This puts pressure on Mehmet Ali Talat to bring the negotiations to a close before the election as he is currently trailing Dervis Eroglu in the polls. Dervis Eroglu, the current Prime Minister of the Turkish Cypriot community is a more conservative leader. Many diplomats fear that if he is elected, he will discontinue the peace talks, dashing the hopes of a settlement for years to come. This situation is similar to the defeat of Glafcos Clerides in the 2003 Greek Cypriot presidential election. Many felt that Mr. Clerides was defeated for his inability to deliver a plan that was both acceptable to his people and Mr. Denktash.

Given the current state of affairs on Cyprus, what can be done to facilitate a settlement where others have failed? One way to reach agreement when divvying up the proverbial pie of assets is to grow the pie. Increasing economic opportunities in Northern Ireland enabled both sides to perceive the future economic gains from peace. Another more direct method is simple side payments. Essentially, this means that the EU would give money/aid to both sides as incentive for continued participation in a power sharing government. Since each side seems to want more than what is already on the table – the Greek Cypriots must be compensated for departing a beneficial status quo and the Turkish Cypriots want greater economic opportunity for the loss of their political autonomy. Rhetorical and constructivist persuasion has already been tried, to disastrous effect. Both the people and politicians of Cyprus have shown remarkable capacity to weather all means of deadlines and international pressure. Leaders need real and concrete benefits to bring back to their constituents. That said there are many ways to ensure the passage and success of a power sharing peace agreement. Hopefully, the UN, EU and other third parties can find the circumstances and structure that will be successful in Cyprus.