South Korea: Brief Overview of Geopolitical Challenges and Opportunities

Author: Amanda Towler

South Korea is economically successful, politically stable, and internationally integrated. It is also burdened by the poor, politically isolated, totalitarian, and nuclear-armed North Korea, with whom it is technically still at war. The South Koreans’ disquiet over the North is evidenced in part by the fact that Yonhap News Agency, South Korea’s largest news agency, dedicates an entire section of its Website to their enigmatic and belligerent neighbor. The relationship between the two countries is a strange affair indeed. When North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-il isn’t appealing for food aid from the South, he’s threatening to attack them, test-firing missiles and clamoring for international respect. The incongruence seems lost on Mr. Kim. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, when he came to office in February 2008, opposed the “sunshine” rapprochement policy toward the North. He unilaterally ended the unconditional aid that the South had been providing the North under the previous administration. More recently, however, he has begun cautiously engaging Mr. Kim and playing his game of cat and mouse. He has slowly begun resuming aid to the North while denouncing Mr. Kim’s threats, presumably because he believes that the alternative is potentially much worse.

The two leaders recently met secretly in Singapore, at Mr. Kim’s behest, to discuss a potential North-South summit. Mr. Kim, under pressure from international sanctions and a looming food shortage, has also hinted that he might return to the six-party talks, from which he unilaterally withdrew in April of this year. Mr. Lee is offering a “grand bargain” proposal, wherein the North would denuclearize all at once in exchange for a massive incentives package. China, Japan and the US have signaled support for the proposal, but many analysts consider it dead on arrival. The impending succession of Mr. Kim’s son, Kim Jong-un, is not expected to change this; his ascendency is more symbolic than substantive. It is more likely, however, that the “grand bargain” is intended to start the negotiations with the highest stakes possible, in hopes that even a scaled-back agreement would still yield some progress. Some analysts have suggested that if a summit is held, even if it is fruitless, Mr. Lee will enjoy the perception that his talks-for-denuclearization approach is working; at the very least, he will enjoy domestic support for making the effort. Mr. Lee does, however, risk looking weak should Mr. Kim commandeer the summit and walk all over him.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates reiterated during his visit to Seoul that the US is committed to South Korea’s security and pledged to keep it under their “nuclear umbrella,” ostensibly in response to Mr. Kim’s missile tests. China’s stance with Mr. Kim is also crucial to any negotiations because they are North Korea’s last lifeline. Although China expressed outright disapproval of recent missile tests, Premier Wen Jiabao gave public support to Mr. Kim when he visited Pyongyang. China enjoys a strategic “gatekeeper” role with North Korea, like Russia with Iran, which it is unlikely to relinquish any time soon. Most analysts expect little from the supposed North-South summit, but it could, if Mr. Kim is particularly desperate, turn out to be a strategic opportunity for the Koreas to make tangible and long overdue progress toward cross-border economic and social cooperation, such as increased tourism and family reunifications. The mere prospect of talks has garnered public support of Koreans on both sides of the border and sparked feelings of a fraternal bond. It is quite possible, though, that Mr. Kim is just giving his usual runaround, using the proposed summit as a test to make sure the US is still paying attention.

North Korea aside, South Korea seems keen to extend its economic and geopolitical reach. Mr. Lee recently signed free trade agreements with the EU and the US and is pursuing stronger ties with China, Japan, and neighboring ASEAN members. South Korea has also shown interest in several pan-Asian regimes currently being floated, focusing on such issues as security, trade and even human rights. Mr. Lee and Japan’s Prime Minister Hatoyama have also discussed improving the relationship between their countries, which was strained by Japan’s previous occupation of South Korea. This would be a welcome relief to Koreans who were forcefully relocated to Japan during the occupation and live there still.

Domestically, however, Mr. Lee’s government is facing significant political challenges that could impair the country’s economic recovery and international leadership ambitions. The death of former President Roh Moo-hyun, a progressive, revived his supporters and bolstered their challenge to the conservative President Lee, who is already facing low approval ratings. In response, Mr. Lee undertook several reform efforts to reunify the nation and calm political tensions. He reshuffled his cabinet and set up a presidential advisory committee on social integration, which briefly boosted his approval rating, suggesting that his efforts may be resonating with the general population.

Mr. Lee, in his UN General Assembly debut, emphasized South Korea’s desire to become a world leader on climate change, urged international action on water shortages and bid to host a UN agency on water issues. Mr. Lee sees a natural leadership role for South Korea in the G-20 as well, which has the third largest economy in Asia and 15th largest in the world. As a testament to this, the G-20 will officially be institutionalized in Seoul next year. Moreover, if the G-20 surpasses the G-8 in global importance, as some analysts predict, then South Korea stands to gain significant influence through the institution. South Korea’s aspirations could potentially cause tension with China and Japan, however, as they also pursue regional leadership roles and geopolitical influence.